Kosovo's security under threat from long-range missiles

Kosovo is seen as a potential target of Iran, due to the presence of KFOR and the American Bondsteel base, but remains protected through the NATO umbrella and cooperation with allies.

Iran's new missile capabilities, demonstrated by the attack on Diego Garcia, suggest that the strike range could reach up to 4.000 km, including parts of Europe.

Experts warn of a real threat to Europe, although it remains questionable whether Iranian missiles could penetrate NATO air defenses.

Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean is about 4.000 kilometers from Iran. The attempted missile strike has raised alarm about the country's missile power and increased fears that it could target large parts of Europe - theoretically including Kosovo.

 

 

The missiles were launched on March 20 towards a US and UK military base – one failed, while the other crashed. The one that managed to fly traveled about 3.000 kilometers from the launch base.

The Israeli military said Iran has launched long-range ballistic missiles towards a US target, demonstrating a range of around 4.000 kilometers - enough to target European capitals.

"These missiles are not intended to hit Israel. Their range reaches European capitals. Berlin, Paris and Rome are within the range of direct threat," said Israeli army chief Eyal Zamir.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated that this was Iran's most distant attempt ever to strike a missile target.

“The attack showed that Iranian missiles can reach beyond the 2.000-kilometer limit, which the regime has long said it has set itself as a limit… The attempted attack overturns some of the assumptions about Iran’s missile program, particularly regarding the threat it could pose to Europe,” according to ISW.

Until now, it was believed that Iran did not have the capacity to strike at such distances, while the regime itself claimed to have set that 2.000-kilometer limit in its ballistic missile program.

According to US intelligence estimates, Iran possesses about 14 different types of such missiles – equipped with nuclear or conventional warheads.

Contacted by Radio Free Europe, NATO did not comment on the attacks on Diego Garcia and Iran's missile capabilities, referring only to its previous statement on the occasion when Turkey successfully intercepted similar attacks from Iran.

As Iran's missile capabilities continue to be scrutinized, an EU official told RFE/RL, speaking on condition of anonymity, that this is a new dimension of the war with Iran and that the continent's air defenses - four years after the start of the war in Ukraine - are severely depleted. So far, the EU has allocated more than 70 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine to fight the Russian invasion.

Mark Cancian, a retired US Navy colonel and currently a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, considers the threat to Europe to be "very real."

He said that based on the demonstrated range of past missile launches, Iran could strike parts of southeastern Europe. He said the United States and NATO have long anticipated this risk and have built defense systems in Poland and Romania, but warned that Europe is not yet fully prepared.

"... because the threat is relatively new. The first steps to defend against Iran have been taken, while capacities are being developed in the east to defend against Russian missiles and drones. Poland has built a very powerful army and air defense system, while similar steps are being taken by the Baltic states," Cancian tells Radio Free Europe's Expose program.

More skeptical about Iran's capabilities to directly strike Europe is Gordan Akrap, a former official in the Croatian intelligence community, now a lecturer at the "Dr. Franjo Tudjman" University of Defense and Security.

"First, it must be confirmed whether Iran has missiles that can hit targets at distances of 4-5 thousand kilometers. Even if it has those capabilities - considering the large fleet in the Mediterranean and the distribution of anti-missile systems - I am convinced that they would be destroyed during the approach phase, as they would have to pass over Israel or Turkey. Most likely, they would be neutralized in those areas," Akrap tells Exposé.

In this context, Kosovo is also included in the analysis, due to its international presence. The country hosts the NATO peacekeeping mission, KFOR, as well as the largest American base in the Balkans, Bondsteel. According to the two experts, this makes Kosovo a potential target, but not an unprotected one.

Colonel Cancian emphasizes that Kosovo is included within the coverage of NATO's anti-missile system in Romania and can strengthen its defense by cooperating closely with the alliance.

"Many countries have relationships with NATO that allow them to coordinate things like air defense. Of course, the Swedes and the Finns have had these relationships for many years before they became members. So, it is possible to put a small country under the NATO umbrella without necessarily being a member," Cancian says.

NATO, namely its KFOR force, oversees Kosovo's lower airspace, while the upper airspace – that above 6.200 meters – is under the control of Hungary – a NATO member country.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti has promised that during the new governing mandate, over 1 billion euros will be allocated to the Kosovo Security Force, which already possesses weapons purchased from NATO allies.

Akrap agrees that Kosovo benefits from its relationship with NATO, but suggests that the future of security cannot rely solely on large structures like the European Union and NATO, due to the huge challenges in decision-making. He emphasizes that more flexible forms of cooperation, such as Kosovo's defense agreement with Albania and Croatia, could help it better prepare for future challenges.

"No one can emerge victorious from any conflict or war if they act alone. Therefore, partnerships must be built, both at the international and domestic levels. Divisions serve no one except the attackers," says Akrap.

Kosovo has no diplomatic relations with Iran, which has sided with Serbia against recognizing its independence. Some Serbian citizens have shared the coordinates of the US Bondsteel base on social media, calling on Iran to attack it.

NATO has told Radio Free Europe that KFOR continues to ensure a peaceful and secure environment for all citizens of Kosovo, while the country's authorities have said they are closely monitoring the potential implications of the war, but have not elaborated further.

Cancian argues that Kosovo and Europe are already indirectly involved in this war, through energy outages, the blockade of oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz, and economic uncertainty, while, in Akrap's assessment, these countries should also be rightly concerned about possible terrorist actions by individuals or networks linked to Iran.

"We should not forget the fact that many members of various Shiite organizations have attacked Western and Israeli targets elsewhere in the world," says Akrap.

The conflict in Iran erupted on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes to curb the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. In response, Iran and its allies struck Israel and U.S. targets in allied countries — from Saudi Arabia to Cyprus.

Cancian says the attack on Diego Garcia was a message from Iran that it still has "cards to play" even after weeks of war.

"In other words, it strikes countries that host American bases or that allow the US to use its bases on their territory," he says.

According to him, no one can know for sure how long this war will last and avoids any clear prediction. He emphasizes that the possible negotiations that are being rumored are extremely complicated, as six parties would have to agree: the US, Israel, mediators, Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the Gulf states and the main global players - Europe and Japan.

In short, experts describe the situation as an evolving threat, with more and more states developing long-range strike capabilities. This means that Europe, they say, must prepare for a world where threats are no longer geographically limited.

In this context, Akrap underlines that Kosovo must act wisely, pursue responsible policies and accept strategic compromises that would advance its relations with the EU and NATO./REL