Kosovo faces a political test: compromise or new crisis?

Kosovo appears to be sliding towards early elections again – not as a result of a democratic necessity, but as a consequence of a continuing political failure to build consensus and make institutions functional.

Although the process remains technically suspended by the Constitutional Court, the political signals are clear: the country is entering another electoral cycle that risks producing the same result – a deadlock.

Analysts warn that, despite the final decision of the Constitutional Court regarding President Vjosa Osmani's decree dissolving the Parliament, new elections are almost inevitable.

"All indications show that, after the end of the constitutional deadlines - whatever they may be - Kosovo faces a new electoral process," says analyst Artan Muhaxhiri.

The Constitutional Court of Kosovo has imposed a temporary measure until March 31, suspending the effects of the presidential decree.

This means that, until then, the date for new elections cannot be announced, nor can the session for electing the president, which began on March 5, be continued.

The request for a review of the constitutionality of Osmani's decree was submitted by Prime Minister Albin Kurti's Vetëvendosje Movement, arguing that the process for electing the president has a 60-day deadline to be concluded.

A bumpy road to elections

According to Donika Emini, from the Balkan Policy Advisory Group in Europe – BiEPAG, even if the Court rules in favor of interpreting the 60-day deadline, the political reality remains unchanged: the lack of consensus has made the election of the president almost impossible.

"Currently, there is no signal of consensus among political parties on the election of the president," she emphasizes to Radio Free Europe.

Osman's mandate expires in less than two weeks.

The election of the president in Kosovo is carried out by the Assembly and requires a qualified majority of votes – which makes the process dependent on inter-party compromise. In case of failure, the country goes to elections.

Some political parties are already treating the election scenario as a done deal.

Prime Minister Albin Kurti is skeptical that the elections will bring real change, warning of a "continuation of legislative and institutional agony."

On the other hand, the opposition sees the responsibility precisely with the government.

According to the leader of the Democratic Party of Kosovo, Bedri Hamza, the lack of will from the parliamentary majority is pushing the country towards elections, at a time when, according to him, "Kosovo needs stability, responsibility and development."

During an appearance on Klan Kosova television a few days ago, the leader of the Democratic League of Kosovo, Lumir Abdixhiku, said that political parties have started a "new institutional impasse."

"In the current circumstances, new elections are certain. Certain," he said.

And, Ardian Gjini of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo expressed himself more pessimistically, warning of the possibility of two elections within the year, if even after new elections no agreement is reached on the president.

"The acting president can only stay for six months, which means until October 5th. If by then we have neither a president nor a government, the country will have no other choice but to go to elections," Gjini emphasized to the media in Kosovo.

In these circumstances, the essential question that remains is: what is the meaning of elections?

Choice without change?

According to Emini, the experience of recent years shows that repeated election cycles have not brought substantial change in the functioning of the political scene.

Even the last elections – held on December 28, about 10 months after the February 9, 2025 elections – confirmed the dominance of the Vetëvendosje Movement, without guaranteeing a real capacity for institutional consensus.

"The new elections are very likely to yield similar results to the previous ones. There may only be small movements in the percentage that political parties can win," she says.

A potentially new factor could be the eventual return of Vjosa Osmani to the party scene, but even this, according to Emini, would bring a partial reconfiguration, not a fundamental transformation of the political scene.

According to her, the problem does not lie in the vote, but in the lack of a culture of compromise.

"If the situation continues in this direction, the space where citizens benefit from the political system remains very limited. This remains perhaps the most worrying consequence of the entire current crisis," says Emini.

The risk of an endless cycle of crises

Both analysts warn that Kosovo is entering a vicious circle, where elections do not resolve the crisis, but recycle it.

Muhaxhiri estimates that, in theory, it would be logical for support for the Vetëvendosje Movement to decline due to a lack of political cooperation, but recent experience shows the opposite.

"I don't expect a big change. That's what was thought last year - and here we are today," he tells Radio Free Europe.

According to him, the only real change would come from a punitive response from the electorate – a "transformative vote" that would end "political perversion."

"Otherwise, the vicious circle will continue unabated," he says.

The consequences are not only internal.

A continuing institutional crisis, warns Muhaxhiri, risks removing Kosovo from the European Union's integration agenda and demotivating international allies.

"Retreating from European projects reduces Kosovo's geopolitical importance and removes it from the cooperation radar," he emphasizes.

What should political parties do?

"In an ideal scenario, new elections should be avoided," says Emini, emphasizing that there is still a window for compromise, but only if there is a serious commitment to overcoming the impasse.

And, if the country goes to elections, they will only be meaningful if they are accompanied by a change in political approach, according to her.

"Parties must enter the electoral process with a clear goal: to work for the long-term interest of the country, not for political dominance or narrow benefits. This means a willingness for dialogue, negotiations on a programmatic basis, and a focus on the real needs of citizens," says Emini.

Analyst Artan Muhaxhiri is also on the same skeptical line, who does not expect a change in approach from the Vetëvendosje Movement, nor a clear alternative from the opposition.

According to him, neither PDK, LDK, nor AAK have proven so far that they possess a convincing strategy to challenge the political dominance of Vetëvendosje.

"If the opposition parties manage to increase support and secure a majority of 61 MPs, then the minimum political responsibility would be to harmonize positions and co-govern in accordance with electoral power," Muhaxhiri emphasizes, although he does not believe that such a scenario is achievable.

According to him, stopping the cycle of successive institutional crises remains the only rational alternative – and a direct obligation for the political class.

"On the contrary, any other option constitutes an investment in the erosion of the state and accelerating the path towards statelessness," he concludes./Radio Free Europe